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2017 Conference

June 21–24, 2017

Tuscon, AZ

AESS 2017 Draft Conference Session Schedule

Birds as bellwethers of environmental change: Predictive modeling to understand species response, identify habitat hotspots, and inform conservation strategies

Thursday, June 22, 2017 at 12:15 PM–2:00 PM MDT
ENR2 S 107
Abstract

According to a recent IPCC synthesis report, changes in climate have and will continue to add pressure on the resilience and sustainability of global biodiversity. In an era of accelerating environmental change, tools forecasting species distributions will be central to species conservation. Birds are an ideal class of organisms to track environmental change: bird taxonomy is well known and relatively stable; birds are a speciose class of organisms exhibiting enormous diversity; birds are generally easy to identify, survey and monitor; and, extensive historical data are available for many species. By using species distribution models (SDMs) created under current conditions and future climate scenarios, we can predict shifts in habitat suitability to identify hotspots of conservation importance on a fine scale. Models were created for all New York State bird species of greatest conservation need using available georeferenced occurrence data and grouped into guilds with respect to habitat requirements. Maps were then generated depicting current habitat suitability for the baseline period (1950 - 2000) and projected to 2050 under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. This method allows for identification of what climate variables might be potential limiting factors for species survival. This modeling study highlights the need for integrating the best available science into planning efforts, with increased transparency and communication among all stakeholder groups. The proposed framework also allows for collaborative planning on a regional scale to ensure that the most effective strategies for increasing resiliency and adaptability are selected. By combining SDMs with various other analyses and modeling efforts, we can incorporate maximum detail into our decision-making process not just for birds, but for any species of concern. As New York and other states update their SWAPS, a framework such as this can provide guidance to focus conservation efforts and provide more prescriptive actions.

Primary Contact

[photo]
Samantha Hoff, Siena College, Department of Environmental Studies and Sciences

Presenters

[photo]
Jean Mangun, Siena College
Title of paper

Birds as bellwethers of environmental change: Predictive modeling to understand species response, identify habitat hotspots, and inform conservation strategies

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Chair, Facilitator, Or Moderators

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