2018 Conference

Individual Paper Presentation

This paper presents an evaluation of future energy supply strategies for Egypt’s power sector and identifies the prospects to meet future rising electricity demand while addressing energy security and low-carbon development issues. The TIMES energy system model is applied from 2014 to 2050 for this evaluation. It examines different policy goals for Egypt based on Egypt’s Vision 2030 for energy issues specifically: (a) targeted power generation based on renewable energy under two different scenarios: (1) 20 percent of total electricity by 2020 and 30 percent by 2050, and (2) 20 percent by 2020 and 40 percent by 2050; (b) targeted carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions mitigation towards low-carbon society development; and (c) constraints on natural gas production for power generation.

The results show that targeted renewable-based power generation and mitigation of CO₂ emissions scenarios would reduce dependency on fossil-fuel use for power generation, diversify the energy supply mix, reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and improve Egypt’s energy security. The energy security issue is assessed based on net dependency of fossil-fuel use and the Shannon-Wiener Index (SWI) for diversification of energy supply-mix over time for electricity generation. The effects on fossil-fuel dependency, diversity of energy-mix, marginal electricity generation price, and GHG mitigation indicate that it may be wise to implement targeted promotion of renewable energy for power generation and develop a low-carbon society.