Using two data sets (Prudential Financial Wellness Survey, and Health and Retirement Study), this study demonstrates that although there is generally a natural upward trend for older (age 50+) Americans to progressively delay their expected retirement, this trend has no statistically significant relationship with the COVID-19 pandemic. The distribution of older Americans’ expected retirement ages is bimodal, often centered around two Social Security Benefit claiming ages – the early retirement age and full retirement age. However, their actual retirement ages are more likely to follow a left-skewed (retire earlier) distribution. The most significant factors that influence participants’ retirement decisions relative to expectations are health (+)^[1], wealth (-), age (+), change of marital status (+), mortality expectations (+), education levels (+), disability (-), and major illness diagnosis (-). Focusing on these factors can help the retirement benefits community explore strategies to mitigate the negative consequences of gaps between retirement expectations and reality.

^[1] “(-)” means the impact is negative, i.e., retire earlier than expected, and “(+)” means the impact is positive.

Accepted Oral Presentation