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D1b Consumer Overconfidence and Finfluencer Engagement: From Viewing to Vulnerability
Short Description
This study analyzes how consumer overconfidence influences sequential behaviors related to financial influencers. Data were drawn from the 2024 Fund Investor Survey conducted by the Korea Financial Consumers Protection Foundation. Overconfidence was categorized into three subtypes: overestimation, overplacement, and overprecision. Dependent variables were defined across four stages of finfluencer engagement: viewing, subscribing, investing, and experiencing harm. Logistic regression was employed as the primary method, complemented by decision tree and random forest models to enhance explanatory power and predictive accuracy.
The results demonstrate that overconfidence exerts stage-specific effects. Overplacement increases the likelihood of viewing finfluencer content, while overprecision consistently shows negative effects at the subscription and investment stages. Overestimation, in turn, significantly elevates the likelihood of consumer harm. By contrast, consumer resources and competencies—including financial literacy, risk tolerance, financial planning horizon, assets, and age—emerged as the most influential predictors in the decision tree and random forest models, underscoring their critical role in shaping overall engagement.
These findings yield two key implications. First, distinct types of overconfidence biases act as significant determinants of consumer engagement at different stages. Second, consumer protection strategies should extend beyond correcting psychological biases to strengthening financial literacy and addressing age-specific differences in risk tolerance and financial planning horizon. Overall, the results provide meaningful insights for the design of educational and policy measures aimed at protecting retail investors in the era of financial influencers.
Type of presentation
Accepted Oral Presentation