This paper analyzes the college aspiration–expectation gap among young adults in the United States, utilizing the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) and its Transition to Adulthood Supplement (TAS). This study examines the impact of marital status, income, parental closeness, and health on the likelihood of a mismatch between educational expectations and aspirations. We estimate both linear and multinomial models of the gap using nationally representative survey data from 2005 to 2019. Results show that higher household wealth lowers the likelihood of under-aspiration, and closer proximity to mothers lowers the odds of over-aspiration. These results demonstrate how family dynamics and resources shape the young adults' perceptions of their future in school.

Accepted Oral Presentation