2015 Conference

Full Presentation Panel

Difficult-to-predict shocks or disturbances could disrupt food production or distribution severely enough to set in motion a breakdown of food supply. The risk of serious shortfalls, whether on a local or larger scale, shorter or longer period, is of genuine concern. Cities are particularly vulnerable. It’s difficult to get a clear grip on this topic because the food system is so complex, and failure could take forms never seen before, but the stakes are high. A collection of articles in JESS is framing this issue to clarify what environmental scientists and teachers can do through research, education, or community action to contribute to a more resilient food system. This session will focus on:

• How do food crises happen?
• How can system dynamics simulations help to clarify food resilience issues and solutions?

Gerry Marten, The dynamics of food system collapse: Lessons from crises

Unexpected shock can set in motion a chain of effects that leads to severe disruption of food supply. For example, British truckers protested a dramatic hike in the price of diesel fuel by obstructing the delivery of fuel to service stations in September 2000. Within a week, most service stations ran out of fuel, transport was crippled, absenteeism spread through the economy as people were unable to get to work, grocery store shelves emptied out, and many other sectors of society were on the verge of collapse. In another example, drought in Australia – in combination with diversion of U.S. corn production to ethanol, an increase in the international oil price, and the 2008 mortgage crisis and ensuing recession – set in motion a chain of effects in international food markets that doubled the price of basic food commodities within a year and led to food riots in 65 nations. This presentation will use these and other experiences to illustrate how vulnerability works and identify lessons for reducing the risks of food crises in the future.

Krystina Stave, A system dynamics perspective on food system vulnerabilities in highly developed countries: Insights from a three-stage conceptual model

This presentation uses a system dynamics perspective to examine food system vulnerabilities in developed countries. While there has been considerable attention to specific issues such as organic food, agri-business, effects of pesticide and fertilizer runoff, or introduction of genetically modified organisms, it is hard to get a clear picture of the ways in which the food system as a whole is vulnerable at the national level. In this analysis, I describe links and feedback between the human health, food, and environmental sectors at three progressively more detailed levels. The resulting conceptual maps make system structure visible and reveal that the system is vulnerable in multiple places to exogenous disturbances, but also contains potential instability in its supply chain and commodity market structure as well as in feedback loops linking food sector activities and the environment. Such loops can crowd out regenerative agriculture production systems and make a transition towards more diversity and higher adaptive capacity both expensive and time consuming.

Andrew Huff, How resilient is the United States food system to influenza pandemic and what can be done to improve resilience?

A severe influenza pandemic could have serious detrimental impacts on many sectors of society because of the labor shortages it creates. People stay home because they are sick, taking care for sick family members, or avoiding exposure to the disease. A system dynamics model was constructed to demonstrate the likely effects of a pandemic on a regional food supply chain in the United States. The pandemic was assumed to last 500 days with waves of infection that reduced the labor supply for farms, food processing plants, transport, and distribution and retail outlets. The response of food supply to labor shortages was explored with two thousand replicate runs of the model in which the labor shortages fluctuated cyclically through time between 10% absenteeism and a peak of absenteeism that varied from 15% to 50% in different runs of the model. Median results of the simulations showed waves of food supply shortfall reaching 50% or more for several months at a time. Overall, the model demonstrated that a severe pandemic with greater than a 25% reduction in labor availability could plausibly cause significant and widespread food shortages. This presentation concludes with suggestions for improving the resilience of food supply chains in the event of pandemic.