2015 Conference

Full Presentation Panel

A climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) is a key step in determining appropriate mitigation and adaptation actions, and in monitoring and evaluating the efficacy of these actions in ensuring the sustainability of a community in the face of climate change. While CCVA is helpful in capturing different vulnerability dimensions (e.g. physical, social, cultural, economic and political), it fails to distinguish between internal and external determinants, the latter being indirect and embedded in common indicators of vulnerability.  Such indirect vulnerability arises because communities are inter-dependent, not just for economic commodities but also for the basic resources needed to sustain a population’s wellbeing.

No community is self-sufficient - food, energy, water, raw materials and products are imported and exported. Therefore, each community is affected by the vulnerability of other areas on which they depend on for critical needs, including the transport routes connecting those areas. As such, CCVAs for communities must be enhanced to articulate this inter-dependency and present a clearer picture of vulnerability.

The practice of conducting supply chain assessments can be adapted to articulate the indirect vulnerability arising from critical needs networks. The main objective of the panel presentation is to demonstrate the supply chain analyses to the critical needs of a community, and assess these chains through a climate change vulnerability lens. The panel papers focus on tracing the supply chains for critical needs inputs on rice, electricity and water and basic output of waste; in the context of Metro Manila’s vulnerability to climate change.

Individual Abstracts for the 4 panelists:

An Application of Supply Chain Analyses to Assess Indirect Vulnerability to Climate Change: An Assessment of the Water Supply Chain of Metro Manila

Presenter 1: Maria Aileen Leah G. Guzman, Ph.D.

Presenter 1 Paper Abstract:

In the Philippine context, it has long been recognized that climate change affects the water cycle and thus the freshwater supply. Warming temperatures and increases in extreme events, together with population growth and ecosystem degradation further complicate the balance of water supply and demand (Jose & Cruz, 1999). Although many studies already exist that explores the vulnerability of water supply systems in the context of climate change, most literature focus on quantitative results (Connor, et al., 2012). The project provides an opportunity to investigate the water supply chain of a mega-city such as Metro Manila through a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) -based model that integrates an input-output model to identify “weakness” in the water supply chain. Preliminary results indicate that the weak links in the water supply chain of Metro Manila include the limited number of raw water sources, temporary storage facilities (for raw and treated water), treatment plants and distribution facilities.

Presenter 2 Paper Title:

An Application of Supply Chain Analyses to Assess Indirect Vulnerability to Climate Change: An Assessment of the Waste Management Chain of Metro Manila

Presenter 2: Abigail Marie T. Favis 

Presenter 2 Paper Abstract:

Metro Manila generates upwards of 8.700 tons of solid waste daily. While the Solid Waste Management Act of 2000 prescribes that the collection, transfer, transport, diversion, and disposal waste is the responsibility of the local government unit (LGU), solid waste management is still a problem both within and outside the city boundaries. For instance, the bulk of Metro Manila’s waste is disposed of in landfills outside the city, and substantial land and sea transport is needed. Thus, an understanding of the vulnerability of solid waste collection, transportation, and disposal will help determine Metro Manila’s indirect vulnerability and will lead to interventions that enhance the city’s resilience. To accomplish this, mapping solid waste transport routes and disposal sites and key informant interviews will be conducted and the data gathered will be analyzed in conjunction with climate change projections.

Presenter 3 Paper Title:

An Application of Supply Chain Analyses to Assess Indirect Vulnerability to Climate Change: An Assessment of the Rice Supply Chain of Metro Manila

Presenter 3: Charlotte Kendra Z. Gotangco, Ph.D.

Presenter 3 Paper Abstract:

Metro Manila, a highly urbanized region composed of 17 cities and a municipality, supports an estimated 12 million people who rely on rice as a staple of the Filipino diet. Rice is a climate-sensitive crop, with decreases in yield associated with increases in night-time temperatures and increases in growing season minimum temperatures during the dry season. Metro Manila is highly dependent on the provinces of Isabela, Nueva Ecija and Bulacan, and on importation, for its rice needs, having no substantial agriculture industry on its own. This represents a significant source of indirect vulnerability for Metro Manila in the face of climate change and climate variability, as all three provinces are projected to experience temperature increases throughout the year, and precipitation decreases during the summer months. Furthermore, during episodes of extreme rainfall events, even those not directly affecting Metro Manila but affecting neighboring provinces and the rice bowls of Luzon, transport of rice supply to Metro Manila is hampered by flooding leading to higher prices of commodity. For these reasons, it becomes important to map the climate exposure of Metro Manila’s rice sources, as well as the road and transport networks, and the major markets/retailers, to help characterize Metro Manila’s indirect vulnerability. To accomplish this, Geographic Information Systems are employed together with ground-truthing, and surveys/interviews of stakeholders in the rice supply chain, both for government rice and commercial rice.

Presenter 4 Paper Title:

An Application of Supply Chain Analyses to Assess Indirect Vulnerability to Climate Change: An Assessment of the Energy Supply Chain of Metro Manila

Presenter 4: Marion Lara L. Tan 

Presenter 4 Paper Abstract:

Metro Manila does not generate its own energy; its energy supply relies heavily on the surrounding provinces. The fuel supply chain downstream movement to Metro Manila concentrates from two main geographical location: the proximate provinces of Bataan (East of Manila) and Batangas (South of Manila).  Almost 100% of Philippines’ fuel comes from imports which are received in Bataan and Batangas.  The two provinces also host the primary and largest refineries of the country. Two main gas pipelines, one from Bataan and the other from Batangas, transport the petroleum products to the National Capital Region for further distribution. Moreover, Metro Manila’s electricity heavily relies on the fuel importation; as power still mainly comes from gas-sourced power generated in Batangas (55%).  Given the current energy set-up of Metro Manila, the metropolis may be subjected to multiple exposures to climate change risks. This paper provides a vulnerability assessment of Metro Manila’s energy supply chain. The initial intended outcome of this assessment will be a Geographic Information Systems -based model overlaid with climate change projections. The integrated model will have the capability to assess the ‘weak links’ of Metro Manila’s energy supply network in the context of climate change.