Saltar al contenido principal
logo

2015 Conference

del 15 al 16 de October del 2015

Orlando, FL

Welcome to the AFS Conference 2015 Schedule App. Please use the search features to see when your session or poster has been scheduled to take place. 

Overconfidence, Optimism, and Risk Management Decisions

jueves, el 15 de octubre de 2015 a las 08:45–10:15 EDT
1-Council
Keywords: 5 words maximum

Overconfidence, Insurance, Laboratory experiment, Uncertainty

Very short description for use in the program to help attendees understand more than a title can describe

We elicit risk perception information from experiment participants prior to their participation in an incentivised probability estimation and insurance tastk.  We distinguish between an individual’s optimism bias (the tendency to assign higher subjective probabilities to favorable outcomes) and overconfidence bias (the tendency to overestimate one’s own actual performance after adjusting for the individual’s optimism bias).  Although participants are not significantly optimistic in our experiment, they do exhibit overconfidence by overestimating their performance relative to others. In a controlled risk management task, after adjusting overconfidence for general optimism bias, we find that the optimistic underinsure but the overconfident do not.   

Lead & Corresponding Author

Vickie L. Bajtelsmit, Ph.D., Colorado State University
Job Title

Additional Authors

Jennifer Coats, Ph.D., Colorado State University
Job Title
Cargando…