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F2a Attribution Models for the Foodborne Illnesses From Leafy Greens and Cost Estimates
Short Description
The study of the attribution of foodborne illness pathogens to food ingredients is important as a means of prioritizing and targeting food safety interventions. Nevertheless, important food categories, such as leafy greens, have not been sufficiently studied in this study, we use data from CDC's National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) in three attribution models to examine the relationship between foodborne illnesses and leafy greens. For models utilizing outbreaks of complex foods (foods with multiple ingredients), Monte-Carlo simulations based on Dirichlet, Multinomial, and Triangular distributions were constructed to quantify uncertainty. Sensitivity analyses upon different sample assumptions were conducted for verification of model accuracy. Leafy Green products are associated with approximately 13%-27.5% of E. Coli O157 illnesses, and 4%-14.3% of foodborne Norovirus illnesses. Moreover, we estimated the number of illnesses and economic burdens caused by each leafy green-pathogen pair based on different attribution models. At least 577,497 (90% UI: 553,721 to 601,215) illnesses are associated with leafy green products, with lettuces (iceberg, romaine, other lettuce) contributing the most illnesses. Meanwhile, it is estimated that foodborne illness associated with leafy greens has a health-related economic cost of $1.292 billion (90% UI: $1.237 billion to $1.347 billion).
Type of presentation
Accepted Oral Presentation